Jobs Number Beats Expectations, Growth Slows – August 10, 2020
There are many indicators that can be used to measure economic activity. Today, the number of jobs being generated is probably the most important.
On Friday, the U.S. BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 1.8 million in July, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.7 million (Econoday) but below June’s 4.7 million increase. The unemployment rate fell from 11.1% in June to 10.2% in July.
Since the bottom in April, the number of jobs has increased by over 9 million, but we still have 13 million more jobs to go before getting back to pre-Covid levels.
The slightly better-than-expected report suggests that rehiring and reopenings are more than offsetting any slowdown in the recovery that may be happening due to July’s spike in Covid cases.
Damage to the labor market has been uneven as illustrated by the jobless rate based on one’s level of education, but the falling rate in all categories is cautiously encouraging.
Elsewhere, two closely followed economic indicators from the Institute of Supply Management (measures of manufacturing and services) accelerated in July, and weekly jobless claims fell to a pandemic low in the latest week (Dept of Labor).
While economic progress has been encouraging, the outlook is murky and remains largely dependent on getting Covid-19 under control.
Per the Wall Street Journal, a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis analysis found that states with a larger number of Covid infections since June saw the slowest job recoveries between early June and late July.
A Cornell University survey found that 31% of recalled workers had recently been laid off a second time, with most occurring in states without large virus surges.
Market action and the economy may also be dependent on another stimulus bill that is winding its way through Congress. Divisions have yet to be bridged, but both sides have indicated they expect a compromise to emerge.
Elsewhere, two closely followed economic indicators from the Institute of Supply Management (measures of manufacturing and services) accelerated in July, and weekly jobless claims fell to a pandemic low in the latest week (Dept of Labor).
While economic progress has been encouraging, the outlook is murky and remains largely dependent on getting Covid-19 under control.
Per the Wall Street Journal, a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis analysis found that states with a larger number of Covid infections since June saw the slowest job recoveries between early June and late July.
A Cornell University survey found that 31% of recalled workers had recently been laid off a second time, with most occurring in states without large virus surges.
Market action and the economy may also be dependent on another stimulus bill that is winding its way through Congress. Divisions have yet to be bridged, but both sides have indicated they expect a compromise to emerge.
Created 2020-08-10 17:14:09