Jobs Friday – May 6, 2020
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April’s jobs report on Friday.
Per Econoday, economists are expecting a loss of over 21 million jobs in April. The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.4% in March to 16.3%.
- The range of estimates are unusually wide.
The report will grab headlines. It will be a discouraging and disheartening reminder of the economic toll of the coronavirus.
Looking ahead
April’s number could be as bad as it gets. It won’t come as a surprise to investors.
Could we see a sharp recovery in jobs in the coming months?
According to the NY Times, 18 states are partially reopening their economies, and with it, furloughed employees are slowly returning to work. 7 others will soon reopen or lift some restrictions.
- Paycheck protection loans could bring others back to work.
According to TSA, air travel is up 50% in the week ended May 4 versus the week ended April 20 (down 94% vs a year ago), and gasoline demand is up 15.7% vs 3 weeks ago (EIA data).
Last week, Mastercard said that consumer spending “was currently in the stabilization phase in most markets (CNBC).”
But don’t expect a return to pre-crisis activity anytime soon.
We are in the midst of an unusual but serious economic contraction. The outlook is very uncertain, but if states can reopen without too many problems, the green shoots of recovery may soon expand.
Created 2020-05-06 15:12:23