Hire and Higher – July 6 2021

The pace of hiring rose at its fastest rate in 10 months, according to Friday’s report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Nonfarm payrolls rose 850,000 in June, besting a survey by Bloomberg News of 720,000.

The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, rose from 5.8% in May to 5.9% in June, in part, because more people entered the labor force looking for work.

Job growth varies, and it depends on the industry. The leisure and hospitality industry, which includes restaurants and bars, added 343,000 jobs, or 40% of June’s total payroll gain. Of those, restaurants and bars added 194,000. The industry remains below its pre-pandemic peak, as evidenced by Figure 1.

Notably, job openings remain very high for the industry—see Figure 2. One way we can interpret Figure 2: job openings in L&H are rising faster than total U.S. job openings, which stand at a record high.

It helps explain the proliferation of help wanted and hiring signs we sometimes see when we walk into or drive past a restaurant.

I highlight this sector because it was hit very hard in the early days of the pandemic and is a good proxy on the reopening trade. As we enter the second half of the year, job growth has been strong for L&H.

Like the recession, the economic recovery has been like no other, which has confounded economic experts. In turn, economic forecasts have been less reliable than usual.

From a broader perspective, strong economic growth is creating job openings and rising employment, which is needed to sustain today’s economic recovery.

Created 2021-07-06 16:20:14