Stepping on the Gas in the Fourth Quarter
GDP, which is the largest measure of economic activity, slowed sharply in Q3. But as the fourth quarter gets underway, early reports are suggesting a…
Fourth Quarter Growth Takes Off
Third quarter GDP slowed to an annual rate of 2.0% from Q2’s 6.7%. But early data suggest the economy is off to a quick start…
The Case for “Transitory” Loses Ground
For much of the year, we have listened to Federal Reserve officials argue that the surge in inflation is “transitory.” Transitory simply means temporary. Yet,…
The Fed’s Baby Steps
The Fed has been “talking about talking about tapering” for months. Last week, it stopped talking and started doing. The Fed will begin tapering its…
Economic Growth = Job Growth
If we were to review just two economic yardsticks—job growth and layoffs—we would get a feel for what’s happening to the economy. It wouldn’t be…
October Trick or Treating Yields Treats
Historically, September has not been kind to investors. Using S&P 500 data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve dating back to 1970, September ranks dead…
Fed Game Day—Change in the Air
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. A rate hike isn’t expected, but it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Fed will announce…
The Delta Variant and the Economy
Last week, anxieties briefly crept into sentiment amid rising Covid cases. Outside of health concerns, investors are reviewing various signals as they try to get…
Job Openings Jump Above 10 Million
Job openings surged from 9.5 million in May to 10.1 million in June. It’s the fourth-straight record for openings, according to the U.S. BLS. The…
Payrolls Jump and the Unemployment Rate Hits Pandemic Low
Hiring rose at the fastest pace in almost a year, according to the latest payroll report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls…