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Today’s selloff - November 4, 2018

There was nothing specific to pin today’s decline on, but analysts pointed to 3 factors—

    • Doubts the short leash on the US/China-trade truce will lead to a more permanent accord
    • Yesterday’s minor inversion of the yield curve: the 3-yr yield rose above the 5-yr yield
    • PM Theresa May’s uphill struggle to get her Brexit deal approved

Sell sell sell

It’s almost as if traders are scared of their own shadows.

Sure, there are signs growth at home is moderating, and investors have been repricing risk. However, late-cycle talk is all the rage, and today investors are HYPERSENSITIVE about the yield curve. Throw in trade and rising Brexit worries and investors sold on relatively low volume.

Calmer voices

Most leading indicators aren’t pointing to a near-term recession, and Monday’s ISM Mfg Index release suggested manufacturing activity is accelerating.

Tomorrow, December 5th, markets will be closed to honor former President George H.W. Bush.

 

@LWMLLC