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Oil Prices Bubble Up to Highest Since Late 2014 - May 9, 2018

The price of oil topped $70 per barrel on Monday after bottoming at $26 in early 2016 (Energy Info. Admin—EIA).

Forces supporting prices—

  • The agreement by OPEC and Russia to reduce production has helped mop up the global glut.

  • A growing U.S. and global economy increases demand for oil.

  • Declining production from Venezuela further hinders supply.

  • Conventional oil projects that boost supply can take years to develop.

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Tiptoeing Around the Yield Curve - May 2, 2018

The yield curve can be defined as the yield on a bond of equal credit quality at various maturities.

For example, we can plot yields on Treasuries with maturities between 3 months and 30 years.

  • Normally, a longer maturity translates into a higher yield. That is currently the case.

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Competing Forces - May 1, 2018

Since stocks rolled over near the end of January, there has been a sharp pickup in volatility – big gains on some days and big losses on others. But the selloff since the January 26th peak has been modest.

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A Q1 Earnings Blowout Fails to Impress - April 30, 2018

Q1 projections provided by various companies were quite strong (FactSet), and analysts sharply raised profit forecasts (Thomson Reuters) during the first quarter. Taken together, it could be viewed as a sign of confidence, but it also meant the bar had been set high.

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