Who Wins a Trade War - May 15, 2019

The simplest answer – no one, as each side retaliates.

  • U.S. exporters suffer.
  • Higher tariffs equal higher prices.
  • U.S. and global growth face stiffer headwinds.
  • Disruption of supply chains can occur.
  • Greater stock market volatility is a risk.

A better question – who comes away with fewer bruises?

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Navigating a Volatile Market - May 9, 2019

A strong April employment report, an expanding economy, low interest rates, and low inflation have played a big role in 2019’s rally.

And, so has the belief the U.S. and China will agree to a new trade deal.

A new wrinkle

Impatient with backpedaling by China, President Trump surprised investors on Sunday when he tweeted he will impose new tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday.

  • Previously, headlines had suggested a deal might be forthcoming this week

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Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs - May 6, 2019

As the economic expansion approaches its 10th birthday in July (NBER), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unwrapped an early present: a strong jobs report and the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a stronger-than-expected 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%. It’s the lowest reading since May 1969, when the jobless rate bottomed at 3.4% (St. Louis Federal Reserve).

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