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When Good News Is Good News - December 9, 2019

The U.S. economy generated a surprisingly strong 266,000 new jobs in November. The jobless rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, tying a 50-year low per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The graph below is a three-month average of nonfarm payrolls, which helps iron out monthly volatility. Note the acceleration over the last four months.

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Shake and Bake - December 4, 2019

As we entered the fall, positive headlines on trade reduced volatility, and stocks moved to new highs.

  • In November alone, the S&P 500 Index2 closed at 11 new highs (St. Louis Federal Reserve S&P data).

What happens if the U.S. and China fail to conclude a trade deal? It may simply be public posturing designed to wring out concessions, but the president has a way of shaking things up from time to time.

  • On Tuesday, he said he liked “the idea of waiting until after the election” to reach a deal (WSJ).
  • He also suggested that he might take aim at other countries.

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Christmas in November - December 2, 2019

November has been kind to investors, with multiple new highs for the major market indexes. Major milestones include: 28,000 for the Dow Jones Industrials, 3,100 for the S&P 500 Index (3,000 was eclipsed in July), and 8,600 for the NASDAQ Composite.

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Office Closure - November 27, 2019

Please be advised that our office will be closed Thursday and Friday this week for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. We will resume our regular hours of operation on Monday, December 2nd. 

We hope all of our clients and their families enjoy a happy and safe holiday together!

 

Softer but No Recession - November 25, 2019

Leading economic indicators are suggesting economic growth will soften through the end of the year, but we’re not seeing signals that a recession is looming. Before I go on, let me say that the recessionary track record for economists isn’t great. Still, we can review important signs.

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