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Oil Prices Rising – A Tailwind for the Economy - July 11, 2018

It’s a counterintuitive title. Won’t higher gasoline prices hamper economic growth? No one likes paying more at the pump.

The changing energy landscape—

  • Net imports of oil and petroleum products peaked at 13.4 million barrels per day in August 2006 (Energy Information Administration).

  • Twelve years later, it’s down to 2.6 million barrels per day.

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Economic Growth = Job Growth - July 9, 2018

The U.S. economy is expanding at a solid pace. An expanding economy reflects rising sales from the nation’s many businesses. And when sales are rising, businesses on average require more employees and they hire.

Last month was no exception. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls rose 213,000 in June. Since the beginning of the year, the economy has generated 1.3 million net new jobs (U.S. BLS).

Job growth will vary from month to month. Some may be strong, and some may disappoint. Figure 1 helps smooth out some of the monthly volatility. It highlights that job growth has accelerated this year, with an average of 215,000 net new jobs each month in 2018. That’s up significantly from the same period last year.

7 9 18 average

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Fun Facts About the Declaration of Independence - July 3, 2018

Please be advised that our office will be closed on July 4th, 2018, in honor of Independence Day. We will resume our regular hours on Thursday, the 5th. July 4th marks the 242nd anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. In its honor, here are 8 fun facts about one of the nation’s most treasured documents.

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An Overseas Tsunami of Cash - July 2, 2018

The recently passed tax bill requires that overseas corporate earnings, which have yet to returned to the U.S., be taxed at 15.5% if held as cash/cash equivalents, and 8% if illiquid assets. Estimates vary on how much is held outside the U.S.

Bank of America Merrill Lunch (BAML) believes $2.5 trillion has accumulated since 1986. A recent estimate in Fortune suggests $3.1 trillion has been locked up overseas.

7 2 18 INDEX

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Trade Tensions Spill into Stocks - June 27, 2018

There is no set definition for a trade war. The U.S. has levied tariffs on goods from China and other major countries. These countries have responded in-kind.

U.S. impact—

Moody’s estimates the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods will “shave about 0.1 percentage point from GDP in the coming year.”

  • If tariffs are implemented on all goods threatened by the president, “that would shave about a half of a percentage point off GDP.”

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