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Scheduled Office Closure - January 18, 2019

Please be advised that we will be closed on Monday, January 21st, in observance of Martin Luther King Day. We will resume our normal hours of operation on Tuesday the 22nd. We hope all of our clients and their families have a safe and happy holiday weekend!

Q4 Earnings Season Gets Underway - January 16, 2019

Sentiment can drive shares higher or lower over a shorter period. Long term, earnings and earnings forecasts are the biggest factors that drives stocks.

As of January 15, S&P 500 profits are forecast to rise 14.0% vs a year ago, the slowest pace since Q3 2017 (Refinitiv). This compares with an October 1st forecast of 20.1%.

Analysts have pared back forecasts amid—

  • Slowing global growth

  • Trade tensions with China

  • Falling oil prices (reduces profits in the energy sector)

  • Downgraded outlooks from individual firms

The reduction in Q4 projections has contributed to recent volatility in stocks.

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Update on December Jobs Report - January 9, 2019

Santa’s Late Christmas Gift – A Blowout December Jobs Report

The US BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls jumped 312,000 in December, the best reading since February.

  • October and November were revised up by 58,000.

Sustainable?

Probably not. Nonfarm payrolls have exceeded 300,000 five times since 2015, including the latest.

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The Year Volatility Returned January 7, 2019

The Year Volatility Returned

The lack of volatility in 2017 was nearly unprecedented. We witnessed 310 trading days without two consecutive daily pullbacks in the S&P 500 Index3 of at least 0.5%, according to research firm Bespoke Group.

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